Gaza: Who Gains?

In the light of Barack Obama’s trip to Burma I had planned to write an article on the American government’s attempts to fend of China’s growing influence by shifting its foreign policy focus towards the Far-East and in doing so extract itself from the Middle-East. I may still write that, but in the context of the resumed hostilities in Gaza talk of American dis-engagement from the region would appear ridiculous. So I've decided to bite the bullet and write something about Israel-Palestine.

Obviously given the on-going casualties and the brutalities of war this piece is not going to be as light hearted as the stuff I usually put on here. I also feel it would be disingenuous not to admit my own opinions of the overall situation so I am going to start by putting my cards on the table and then moving on. In my opinion the ongoing siege of Gaza is an international travesty which will certainly go down in history on a par with Apartheid and the Nuremberg Laws. But the reasons for this article are laid out in the title, “who gains?” Why is the conflict escalating now and who is gaining from it?

The narrative coming from the Israeli government and press is one that is simple and understandable to most people. That is why they have chosen it as their narrative, as their cassus belli. They argue that Hamas is firing rockets into Israeli territory and that the Israelis have a right to defend themselves. It is a hard position to argue against, if my hometown was being hit by rockets coming from another state I would expect my government to do something about it, to retaliate. It is so simple that it hardly holds up to scrutiny.

That rocket attacks happen is undeniable but as can be seen attacking Gaza only causes more of them. Hamas is the dominant force in the Gaza strip but it does not control it. This is a war that has lasted for generations and there are a lot of people demanding vengeance. All it takes to build the simple rockets that makes up most of the ordinance hitting Israel are a pipe and some explosive so anyone who wants to fight can, regardless of what Hamas wants. Gaza is not a functioning state in the way Israel is. The Israeli government can control who or what Israel is shooting at but Hamas does not have that power and if anything Israel’s tactic of shooting back reduces the loose control Hamas has.

Now I don’t think that the IDF is deliberately targeting citizens, but even if we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are actively seeking to minimize civilian casualties the fact is that a lot of civilians, especially children, are being killed and wounded. This obviously just provides the same reaction that comes from the Israelis: the desire to fight back. So Hamas either has the choice of fighting back or not and seeing its support leach away and other groups rising up to fight back. It must be remembered that Hamas emerged as an Islamist alternative to the Arab nationalist Fatah when Fatah agreed that the best policy to improve the lot of its people was to end the fighting. As long as people see family members and neighbours dying there will always be a desire for vengeance.

So Israel’s tactics are counter-productive from a defence stand-point. They are creating a greater desire for vengeance, encouraging more rocket attacks and creating the sort of people who want to launch rockets at Israel. But even given that broad reason this seems an exceptionally bad time to strike at Gaza when looking at the state of Israel’s regional standing. Relations with Turkey, once a relatively close ally, were already on a low ebb and have now all but collapsed. Jordan often derided in the region for their accommodating stance toward Israel has also condemned the current action having been left with little choice by a revolting populace. Egypt is now governed by the Muslim Brotherhood, the group from which Hamas emerged, and as such is a lot less accommodating to Israeli demands to comply with their needs, such us as by shutting off the border, than Mubarak ever was. The post-revolutionary Middle-East will not provide the same sort of accommodating indifference which Israel has relied on for the past 20-30 years.

It would seem in fact that the state of Israel gains in no way from the current war, but the government does. An election is coming and the war has boosted the government’s flagging poll performance; the electorate isn't as interested in the long term ramification as compared to short term action. This war is a naked political act that does nothing to help the security of Israel and everything to bolster the job security of Benjamin Netanyahu. Maybe over the long term it will harm him, maybe, but if the gamble he is paying for in the lives of Israeli soldiers and Palestinian children pays off then he will be secure in the Prime Minister’s office for another few years.

So who gains? Extremists of all stripes. The war improves the standing of the Israeli far right and of Islamist reactionaries while harming the standing of anyone in either Israel or Palestine seeking a peaceful solution. No Israeli politician will risk suggesting peace while rockets hit their towns because it will look like they are surrendering to acts of terror, no Arab politician can face a revolutionary public and call for peace while newspapers and TV screens display the broken bodies of dead and dying children. So the war continues, and ever more blood is spilled.